Pandemic Flu Student Letter 3-21-07
Dear Colleagues,
I would like to share with you some important information about Middlebury College’s efforts in updating its Emergency Plan to include widespread illness such as pandemic flu. While I am not aware of any impending pandemic, the avian flu situation in South East Asia has prompted the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Department of Health & Human Services, and the U.S. Secretary of Education to encourage all colleges and universities to prepare for a potential pandemic flu outbreak. In order to address this and several other emergency situations at Middlebury College, an Emergency Planning Steering Committee* has been formed and is now engaged in a planning effort that will continue over the next several months.
A flu pandemic would involve every person, department, and organization affiliated with Middlebury College. As we begin to prepare both as individuals and as a community, it is important that we all understand the potential significance of this threat, and what we can do about it now.
Historical accounts of the “Great Influenza” pandemic of 1918 estimate a human death toll of over 600,000 in the U.S. and 50 million or more worldwide. Current models estimate that if a similar pandemic were to occur now, the human death toll could reach 1.7 million in the United States and 180 million to 360 million worldwide. What is even more concerning is that the deaths would occur over a very short period of time, and like the 1918 pandemic, might primarily involve young, healthy people who have vigorous immune systems such as college-aged students.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Vermont Department of Health have emphasized that a severe pandemic, involving the easy and rapid spread of an aggressive and potentially lethal virus, could have a devastating impact on people who must live and eat in close proximity to one another. Public health officials recommend the strategy of social distancing to mitigate the spread of illness. This strategy is designed to prevent large gatherings of people and involves the closure of schools, churches, movie theatres, etc. Needless to say, social distancing is impossible within a residential college where students live in residence halls, eat at dining halls, and have contact with large numbers of their peers in many other settings. In the event of a pandemic, early social distancing will be essential in preventing the spread of disease and allowing for the greatest chance of survival for students.
After assessing the student housing and dining situation at Middlebury, the Emergency Planning Steering Committee has concluded that the safest response during a potential pandemic would be to close the College – ideally before the illness strikes Middlebury. Unlike short term closures that occur during scheduled breaks, a pandemic would warrant a complete closure and all students would be required to vacate the campus until it was deemed safe to return. Current estimates for an avian flu pandemic, for example, suggest that closure could last for one or even two semesters.
To emphasize the importance of this effort, beginning in the Fall 2007 semester, all students will be required to file a personal evacuation plan with the College. While this may seem to be a daunting task for some students, we intend to provide them with online tools and strategies to guide them in their planning efforts.
In addition to creating a need for social distancing, a flu pandemic is currently expected to cause illness in up to 35% (217,000) of Vermonters. Employee absentee rates are predicted to reach as high as 35% to 45% due to illness, fear, or caring for sick dependents. Such absenteeism may result in temporary food shortages and business closures, as well as interruption of transportation, utilities,law enforcement, and other services.
Clearly these would be challenging times for all of us, and while it is impossible to predict the future, the success of our response to such a threat lies in part to how well we plan now. The Emergency Planning Steering Committee is in the process of looking at how we might function during a campus closure, and what policies might be needed to preserve as much of Middlebury College as possible. The Committee is simultaneously considering other emergency situations, such as a technology infrastructure failure or a power plant disaster, and intends to engage all departments in a Mission Continuity process that will help identify essential department functions and relationships that would apply during a pandemic or other emergency situation.
While Mission Continuity process is being created, you can learn more about the College’s Pandemic Response Plan by visiting Middlebury College Pandemic Flu Planning. The site will be updated as our planning process continues and new information becomes available. I also encourage
you to visit the CDC Pandemic Flu Planning Checklist for Individuals and Families site and begin considering your own personal or family response plan for pandemic flu. On behalf of Middlebury College and the Emergency Planning Steering Committee, I look forward to working with you on this important initiative.
Sincerely,
Mark Peluso, M.D.
Director, Health Center
* Emergency Planning Steering Committee Members:
◆ Lisa Boudah
◆ Alison Byerly, Co-Chair
◆ Tom Corbin
◆ John Emerson, Co-Chair
◆ Ann Hanson
◆ Michael McKenna
◆ Ron McKinnon
◆ Mark Peluso