Middlebury College is currently expanding and updating its Emergency Plan to include the threat of severe illness, including pandemic flu. Our response is based in part on the following information:
- The “Great Influenza” pandemic of 1918 resulted in a human death toll of over 600,000 in the U.S. and 50 million or more worldwide. Most deaths occurred in young adults.
- Current models estimate that a similar pandemic now would result in a human death toll of 1.7 million in the United States and 180 million to 360 million worldwide.
- Many scientists believe it is a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. However, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted.
- Influenza pandemics occurred three times in the past century — in 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69.
- A pandemic could erupt and spread quickly, resulting in serious infection and possible death over a very short period of time.
- Local and regional medical facilities may not have the capacity to handle a massive surge in people with severe illness.
- General estimates of employee absentee rates during a pandemic due to illness, fear, or caring for sick dependents exceed 35%. This could result in shortages of food, fuel and other services.
- Public health officials are now promoting the strategy of social distancing to mitigate the spread of illness. This includes closure of schools and certain businesses.
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Social distancing is impossible within a residential college where students live in residence halls, eat at dining halls, and have contact with large numbers of their peers in many other settings.
- The Emergency Planning Steering Committee has concluded that the safest response during a potential pandemic would be to close the College – ideally before the illness strikes Middlebury.
- Unlike short term closures that occur during scheduled breaks, a pandemic would warrant a complete closure and all students would be required to vacate the campus until it was deemed safe to return.
- Because the evacuation would be rapid, students would be able to leave non-essential personal belongings in their rooms and all dorms would be closed and locked.
- Current estimates for an avian flu pandemic suggest that closure could last for one or even two semesters.
- The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention have recommended that all colleges and universities develop a plan for pandemic illness.
To learn more about Middlebury's Pandemic Flu Response Plan and how you can best prepare yourself and plan for a potential emergency, please review the information contained in the links on the right sidebar.
Correspondence
Excerpts from The Great Influenza
International Students
Local History: 1918 Pandemic
Middlebury's Phased Plan for Pandemic Flu
Planning and Information Links
Planning Frequently Asked Questions
Planning Instructions
Student Requirement Information