FAQs about Planning
“I’m flipping out, I don’t have a plan, what do I do?”
First, relax and take a deep breath. The planning process is designed to make your life easier if a real pandemic were to occur. While the prospect of a pandemic is certainly frightening, simply going through the planning process should make you feel more at ease in the event that a pandemic occurs. You have some time, and we are going to continue to develop resources to help you plan. It might be best to begin by discussing this issue with your family.
What is an influenza pandemic?
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little or no immunity in the human population, begins to cause serious illness, and then spreads easily person-to-person worldwide.
How do pandemic viruses occur?
New influenza viruses emerge as a result of a process called antigenic shift, which causes a sudden and major change in influenza A viruses. These changes occur when proteins on the surface of the virus combine in new ways as a result of mutation or exchange of genetic material between multiple influenza viruses. If such changes result in a new influenza A virus subtype that can infect humans and spread easily from person to person, an influenza pandemic can occur.*
Will a pandemic influenza occur? If so, when will it happen?
Many scientists believe it is a matter of time until the next influenza pandemic occurs. However, the timing and severity of the next pandemic cannot be predicted. Influenza pandemics occurred three times in the past century — in 1918-19, 1957-58, and 1968-69.*
What age groups are most likely to be affected during an influenza pandemic?
Although scientists cannot predict the specific consequences of an influenza pandemic, it is likely that many age groups would be seriously affected. The greatest risk of hospitalization and death – as seen during the last two pandemics in 1957 and 1968 and during annual influenza – will be infants, the elderly, and those with underlying health conditions. However, in the 1918 pandemic, most deaths occurred in young adults. Few if any people would have immunity to the virus.*
What are the concerns about avian influenza A (H5N1) outbreaks in Asia, Europe, the Near East, and Africa?
There is concern that the H5N1 virus could undergo genetic changes that would result in its ability to be easily transmitted between humans. Since the general population has not been exposed to this H5N1 influenza virus strain before, a mutation leading to sustained human-to-human transmission could cause an influenza pandemic.*
Although it is not predictable when the next influenza pandemic will occur and what influenza virus strain may cause it, the continued and expanded spread of a highly pathogenic avian H5N1 virus that first began spreading throughout Asia in 2003 represents an important public health threat.*
Human influenza A (H5N1) infections were first recognized in 1997 when this virus infected 18 people in Hong Kong, causing 6 deaths. In 2003, a highly pathogenic avian influenza A H5N1 virus (commonly called H5N1 or HPAI H5N1), started spreading in poultry throughout Asia. This H5N1 virus strain has now caused widespread disease in domestic poultry in Asia, parts of Europe, the Near East, and Africa. It also is causing illness and death in a relatively small number of wild birds. In addition to infecting birds, the H5N1 virus has infected and killed other animals and in a small number of cases, it has infected and killed humans.*
Illness caused by this H5N1 influenza virus is very rare among people. Since 2003, the World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed more than 250 H5N1 human infections in 10 countries. The H5N1 virus does not infect humans easily, and if a person is infected, it is very difficult for the virus to spread to another person. However, when serious infections with this virus occur, more than half of the humans known to be infected with this H5N1 virus have died. The majority of people infected with the virus have had direct contact with infected poultry.
The H5N1 virus has raised concerns about a potential human pandemic because:
·The virus is widespread in poultry in many countries in Asia and has spread to parts of Europe, the Near East, and Africa;
·The virus has been transmitted from birds to mammals and in some limited circumstances to humans who had close contact with infected poultry;
·Some wild birds and domestic ducks have become infected without showing symptoms and may be carriers or act as viral reservoirs able to infect domestic poultry species;
·A limited number of instances of probable human-to-human transmission has been reported, although none appears to have spread in a sustained way; and
·Genetic studies confirm that H5N1 influenza viruses, like other influenza viruses, continue to evolve.*
Will the H5N1 bird flu virus cause the next influenza pandemic?
Scientists cannot predict whether an avian influenza (H5N1) virus will cause a pandemic. Today, H5N1 is a bird flu. There are no reported cases of sustained human-to-human passage of H5N1. However, as it mutates, it is possible the virus could become capable of passing human to human and then spread very quickly. That is why we are focusing on comprehensive public health efforts — increasing surveillance, monitoring for outbreaks, international cooperation, increasing antiviral stockpiles, and building more robust capacity for vaccine production — that will help protect us no matter what pandemic strain emerges or where. *
What information do you have about using masks during a pandemic?
Surgical mask and respirator use (N-95 or higher) is one component of a system of infection control practices to prevent the spread of infection between infected and non-infected persons where pandemic influenza patients might receive health care services (e.g., hospitals, emergency departments, out-patient facilities, residential care facilities, emergency medical services, home health care delivery).
It should be noted that there is limited information on the use of surgical masks for the control of a pandemic in settings where there is no identified source of infection (in the workplace or in public places). There is no information on respirator use in such scenarios since modern respirators did not exist during the last pandemic.*
Why do I have to have two locations?
Just like on an airplane where “the best exit may behind you,” during a pandemic, you might find that the second location is easier to get to or is less affected by the pandemic. For most students, the primary location will be home with their family. However, if you live more than a day’s drive from campus, having a second location that is closer is a good idea, even if only for a short time. For planning purposes, we must assume that once the College closes, you will not have access to your dorm or any services; thus, having a second location nearby would be a good idea.
Won’t I be safer in Middlebury?
While it might be safer to avoid large cities and stay in a small Vermont town, the college campus environment does not adequately provide the social distancing necessary to prevent the rapid transmission of illness. In fact, staying on a residential campus with others might actually increase the likelihood of infection.
I heard that during the 1918 flu pandemic, Middlebury College students stayed on campus. Why can’t we stay?
Based on local historical accounts of Middlebury in 1918:
·There was a far smaller student body at the time
·Survival depended on quarantine under martial law, which is not a likely scenario today
·The nation did not have the benefit of the ability to prepare alternatives
·Frankly, they were probably lucky that the quarantine worked and that the virus did not get into the dorms.
Will I be able to fly or travel to distant locations during an evacuation?
You might, but do not count on it as your only strategy. While air travel may be possible, staffing and fuel shortages may cause delays. It is essential that you have an evacuation location within reasonable driving distance from the College.
What about classes and graduation?
Middlebury College is considering strategies to allow students to continue working toward their graduation requirements.
What are other schools doing?
Due to the need for social distancing, many colleges and universities are also considering evacuation and closure at this time.
Will I still have access to email and information from the College?
While we hope so, and will strive to maintain a connection for you, there may be periods where the ability to connect with the College is disrupted due to staff illness or shortages. We anticipate that any disruptions will be temporary.
What do I do if my plan does not work?
It is important to take the planning process seriously and develop plans that have a high chance of success. Middlebury College is not going to verify your plan, and you are really the best person to make a plan for yourself. If your plan were to fail despite your best efforts, Middlebury College might not be in a position to help you, and you would have to quickly come up with an alternative.
*Adapted from information accessed at www.pandemicflu.gov