MIDDLEBURY, Vt. — With the first general election debate appearing to be a stronger performance for Hillary Clinton than for Donald Trump, history suggests that there would be a “bump” in the polls for the Democratic candidate. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney received a two percentage-point rise in the polls after his first debate with President Obama. So far, there has been no corresponding bump for Clinton, once again underscoring the unpredictable nature of this election.

In this installment of Professor Pundits, Middlebury political science professors Matt Dickinson and Bert Johnson discuss debate gains, current polling trends, and the mythology of the “October surprise.”

Dickinson writes the blog Presidential Power and is frequently quoted in the national news media. He often live tweets political events at @MattDickinson44. Johnson, also a regular in the national media, tweets at @bnjohns.

View more episodes of the Professor Pundits here.