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Middlebury political scientists Bert Johnson and Matt Dickinson analyze the presidential campaign.

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Professor Pundits: A Non-Predictable Election? [video]

September 9, 2016



MIDDLEBURY, Vt. -- It's about 60 days before the presidential election and the campaign continues its wild ride. For several weeks, Hillary Clinton has held a wide lead over Donald Trump in many national polls, though Trump may be starting to close the gap.

Middlebury political scientists Bert Johnson and Matt Dickinson have observed a significant discrepancy between the polling numbers and the forecasting models that political scientists use to predict election outcomes. The forecasts, generated around mid-summer, would suggest a very tight race, contradicting what the polls indicate. So which prediction model should we believe? In this installment of Professor Pundits, Dickinson and Johnson discuss this latest conundrum in what has been an unprecedented campaign.

Dickinson writes the blog Presidential Power and is frequently quoted in the national news media. He often live tweets political events at @MattDickinson44. Johnson, also a regular in the national media, tweets at @bnjohns.

View more episodes of the Professor Pundits here.