Physics Professor Rich Wolfson Reacts to Paris Climate Agreement

MIDDLEBURY, Vt. – Following the much-anticipated climate agreement reached in Paris last week, we asked Rich Wolfson, the Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics, who has taught about global warming and climate change at Middlebury for years, to offer his initial reactions to the agreement. When we reached him, Wolfson was attending the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, where, he noted, there was a lot of discussion around climate change and the Paris agreement.

What’s your initial reaction to the agreement reached at the end of COP 21?

RW: Relief, and hope. Relief that 195 countries could come to an agreement at all. Hope that this will inspire them to go further. I like the frequent use of the word “ambitious” in the agreement (which, by the way, I’ve read in its entirety).

Why was it possible to reach an agreement this time when it failed in the past?

RW: I see two main reasons: pressure from citizen groups, like Bill McKibben’s 350.org, and the overwhelming and ever-strengthening scientific evidence (overwhelming to nearly everyone but the U.S. Congress).

Does this agreement have enough teeth to make any meaningful impact on carbon reduction?

RW: Meaningful impact? Yes (as compared to ‘business as usual’). Enough? Far from it, but it’s a start, and that’s what’s important.

The New York Times says this agreement signals to industry that “a new era is here.” Do you think this agreement will provide the incentive needed for industry to make a serious shift away from fossil fuels and toward renewables?

RW: I’m afraid that remains to be seen. But the agreement is one more step—along with citizen and government awareness and technological/economic advances in alternative energy—on the path to reducing and eventually eliminating our dependence on fossil fuels.

Will the U.S. be likely to carry out its commitment under the current and foreseeable political climate?

RW: That’s uncertain as long as Republicans control both houses of Congress.

As an educator, what would you most want to impress on your students about the COP 21 proceedings?

RW: That it’s only a start, but it’s an encouraging start, and that it’s based on quantitative science that citizens ought to understand better.

What else is important to know about the agreement, either scientifically or in terms of policy?

RW: In terms of science, it continues the shift away from specific limits and CO2 concentrations to the impacts of climate change, specifically in terms of the tolerable temperature rise (which, although still listed as 2˚C, is now showing hints that 1.5˚C would be preferable). In terms of policy, there’s lots of flexibility in how individual countries contribute to emissions reductions. There aren’t a lot of teeth in the agreement—but it’s not without some teeth.

Richard Wolfson is the Benjamin F. Wissler Professor of Physics at Middlebury College.