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Photo of Hanna Notte

In an opinion piece for the New York Times titled “Putin’s Next Escalation is Coming,” Middlebury Institute’s Hanna Notte writes that many events, including the recent Crocus City Hall attack, have aligned that will likely prompt Russian president Vladimir Putin to escalate the war in Ukraine. Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) and a Senior Associate (non-resident) in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) in Washington DC.

“Perhaps most important,” Notte writes, “the geopolitical conditions are strikingly in Mr. Putin’s favor. Since invading Ukraine two years ago, Russia has reoriented its entire foreign policy to serve its war aims. It has put its economy on a solid non-Western foundation and secured sanction-proof supply chains, largely insulating itself from future Western pressure. It has also ensured a steady provision of weapons from Iran and North Korea. These dictatorships, unlike Western states, can send substantial amounts of arms abroad without having to worry about bureaucratic impediments and public opinion.”

To read the full opinion piece, visit the New York Times.