Working Paper Series: International Trade

The views and findings expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies or any officials of the Institute.

Ukraine Grain Exports: Navigating Supply Chain Disruptions During War

Author: Nadia Pshonyak MAIPD/MAIT ’25

Ukraine, “the breadbasket of Europe,” is the fifth largest wheat exporter in the world. The Russo-Ukrainian War has disrupted the global grain supply chain leading to soaring prices and reduced quantities available for export. While trade has resumed and the world price has somewhat stabilized, the amount exported is not nearly enough. The increasing insecurities and climate change implications, pose a serious risk of the global food crisis deepening, affecting millions across the globe. Read more.

China’s Real Estate Crisis: Bubble Burst or Restructuring? 

Author: Qiying Liu MAITED ’23 (June 2024)

The Chinese real estate market, once a significant driver of economic growth, now faces a critical juncture characterized by mounting challenges and uncertainties. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s housing policies, exploring whether the current situation signifies a bubble burst or a strategic restructuring. Read more.

Cold Calculations: Economic Prospects for Arctic Shipping Routes

Author: Genevieve Brownlee MAIPD ’25 (June 2024)

With Arctic seas becoming increasingly navigable due to global warming and declining levels of sea ice, shipping routes in the region, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR), Northwest Passage (NWP), and speculative Transpolar Sea Route (TSR), are gaining attention as potential alternatives. This analysis explores the economic advantages and challenges of these Arctic routes, including reduced operating costs, transit times, and the unique requirements of operating in the region. Read more.

Guyana - Economic Trajectory Analysis: A Comparison to Norway and Venezuela

Authors: Kellsey Beal MAIT ’25, Andreas Bertelsen (non-degree International Trade student spring 2024), Nadia Pshonyak MAIPD/MAIT ’25, Thomas Short MAIT ’24 (June 2024)

In 2015, Guyana discovered oil off its coast, positioning it with more oil reserves per capita than any other country globally and giving it the potential to become one of the richest countries in South America. This paper examines the policies of Norway and Venezuela, two nations that also have vast oil reserves, and the policies they took in their nation-building. It also details what Guyana is currently doing with its newfound wealth and offers some policy recommendations. Read more.

Rebuilding Ukraine’s Defense Industrial Base

Authors: Jennifer Newsom MAIPD ’25, Nadia Pshonyak MAIPD/MAIT ’25, Thomas Short MAIT ’24 (June 2024)

In order to recommend how Ukraine should develop its Defense Industrial Base (DIB), it is necessary to have a comprehensive understanding of the strategic objectives and operational needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as well as defining the desired composition and capabilities of the armed forces. This also hinges upon clarifying Ukraine’s strategic direction in the ongoing conflict, as well as assessing its current capacity and potential for growth in critical areas. Read more.

How the U.S. Auto Industry Can Increase Its Market Access in Japan

Author: Gordon Stuck MAITED ’23 (August 2023)

This working paper addresses limitations for US auto producers in the Japanese market and provides potential solutions as to how the US can use its comparative advantage to enter the Japanese auto market in a way that would benefit both countries. The study argues that the US, a world leader in EVs, could help develop Japan’s EV infrastructure. Both countries could use this value-creating strategy to help resolve a decades-long trade dispute and form a joint competitive advantage. Read more.

The RMB’s Delicate Dance: Exploring the Complexities and Constraints of the Chinese Yuan on the Global Stage

Author: Justin Fulcher MANPTS ’23 (June 2023)

This paper investigates the internationalization of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) and its potential impacts on global financial systems, including challenges and implications for the US dollar. This study begins by analyzing China’s efforts to promote the RMB’s internationalization then identifies key challenges the RMB must overcome to achieve internationalization. This paper also examines how RMB internationalization could reshape global trade, investment and financial markets. Read more.

Visions of Diversity: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and its Efforts to Build a Diversified Economy

Authors: Madison Derendinger MPA/ITED and Brian Frank MPA/ITED ’23 (June 2023)

The purpose of this paper is to review the economic changes underway in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through an examination of Vision 2030 and its impacts on eight economic sectors. The authors explore the recent successes, growth trends, complications, and risks and offer suggestions for the future of Saudi economic growth and diversification. Read more.

The Implications of Russia’s War in Ukraine on Eurozone Bank Exposure

Author: Jon Pike MAITED ’22 (August 2022)

This paper employs scenario analysis’ techniques to consider the critical uncertainties precipitated by the war in Ukraine and tethers the corresponding, foremost implications to forward-looking investment strategies considering asset allocations to Eurozone banks. Read more.

Outbound Investment Review Mechanism: A Potential Means of Countering Risks in the U.S.-China Investment Landscape

Author: Julius Moye MAITED/MANPTS ’21 (April 2022)

Foreign investment review mechanisms have taken prominence as a tool of national security strategy and framework for economic competitiveness. One of the most important innovations was the expansion of CFIUS jurisdiction and capacity in the U.S. A notable area that foreign investment review has not covered is that of outbound investments. Read more.

Sony’s Digital Distribution Gambit: Looking at the Crunchyroll Acquisition through the OLI Paradigm

Author: James Garrett MAITED ’21 (April 2022)

Digital streaming has led legacy media companies to compete in securing exclusive content in a bid to draw new subscribers to their platforms. This paper explores the most recent movements of the Sony Group in this environment, analyzing its purchase of the niche streaming platform Crunchyroll, Inc. through the OLI paradigm. Read more.

U.S. and China: New Cold War or an Overdue Negotiation

Authors: Thomas Hout and Robert A. Rogowsky (April 2022)

The worrying trajectory of U.S. economic strength relative to China signals a need to reassess the U.S.’ rules of engagement on trade and investment with our principal economic rival. China is turning more authoritarian, more focused on self-sufficiency, challenging U.S. dominance in critical technologies, and selectively honoring the market-based rules of the international trade order. Read more.

Cryptocurrency and Risks to Banks, AML,
and Sanctions Compliance: A Case Study 2.0

Author: Hannah Sutterfield MPA/MAITED ’21 (December 2021)

This case study updates and expands Dennis Gable’s April 2021 paper. It describes the potential compliance risks cryptocurrencies pose to financial institutions in addition to areas in which banks may expand digital services. This paper also looks at some of the more recent updates made by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). Read more.

Cryptocurrency and Risks to Banks, AML, and Sanctions Compliance: A Case Study

Author: Dennis Gable MAITED ’20 (April 2021)

This working case study describes the potential compliance risks cryptocurrencies pose to financial institutions in addition to areas in which banks may expand digital services. Banks’ compliance requirements often come at odds with users’ appeal to privacy but are necessary for properly monitoring any transgressions or illicit behavior. Read more.

Consistency of the U.S. Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP) with the WTO principles

Author: Yoichiro Kimura MAITED ’20 (March 2021)

To combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, the U.S. established the Seafood Import Monitoring Program (SIMP). SIMP may violate the US obligations under the provisions of the WTO agreement because it could discriminate against imported fish and fish products. Read more.

China’s Soft Power & Digital Trade: Reshaping Global Image Through Digital Media & Entertainment

Authors: Bryan Herbert MAITED ’20, Nicole Kroeger MAIPD ’21, Li (Janet) Zhengjing MAITED ’20 (January 24, 2021)

Despite having seen unprecedented economic growth over the past 30 years, in the eyes of many, China has fallen short in terms of its soft power development as it faces challenges from western democracies. Read more.

Trade Facilitation Agreement: Cost & Benefit Analysis of Single Window Implementation With Mozambique Case Study

Authors: Lincoln Ngaboyisonga MAITED ’21, Pia Park (January, 2021)

When it comes to the implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement, Single Window arises as a popular topic to streamline customs documentation. This study is an attempt to define Single Window, weigh the costs and benefits of a single window implementation, and to also discover by example through the case study of Mozambique. Read more.

The Politics of 5G: The Battle Over the Control of the Next Super Leverage

Author: Shakil Ahmad MAITED ’20 (December 10, 2020)

The leader in the 5G transformation will have the growth and the power to rule the world by setting technological standards. The 5G leader in the technological world can be assumed to hold the same power as the dollar holder has in the financial world. Read more.

U.S. Sanctions Against Russia: Theory, Scope, and Intended and Unintended Consequences for the Investment Behavior of Russian Business Owners

Author: Darrell Stanaford MAIPD ’20 (December 2020)

The purpose of this research paper is to explore the use of sanctions against Russian individual businessmen. It seeks to understand how the sanctioning of individuals fits into the overall policy of U.S. sanctions against Russia. Read more.

What’s the Matter with Sierra Leone?

Author: Stephanie Gaertner MAITED ’20 (December 10, 2020)

Sierra Leone neighbors the “Cotton Four” of West Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mali. The country has geographical features to thrive in agriculture and cotton, but yet the population depends on subsistence agriculture. Having emerged from a civil war in 2001, why doesn’t Sierra Leone have a cotton or textile industry? Read more.

The Evolution of Auto and Labor Provisions in North American Free Trade Agreements

Author: Caroline Turkanis MAITED ’20 (April 2020)

One of the most significant events for U.S. international trade over the last few years has been the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. This paper explores the evolution of labor provisions in North American trade agreements, with particular emphasis on the auto industry. Read more.

Strategic Negotiation for WTO Accession

Authors: Brigid Callahan MAITED ’19, Karen Prodromo, Robert A. Rogowsky (April 2020)

Least-Developed Countries (LDCs) acceding to the World Trade Organization have a hard negotiation road to travel, and much to learn from previous successful accessions. While many of those negotiations were done privately, much can still be garnered by looking at the evolution of those countries’ procurement policies, tariff schedules, and commitments to trade-related aspects of intellectual priority rights. Read more.