As conflict escalated between Israel and Iran this spring, major media outlets across the globe looked to experts from the Middlebury Institute.
Since mid-June, Dr. Jeffrey Lewis has well over 35 media interviews, from national television news networks like CNN and NBC News to news magazines like The Christian Science Monitor, Salon, and TIME magazine, to international outlets like The Independent and The Globe and Mail.
An expert in arms control and open-source intelligence, Lewis and his team have been analyzing satellite imagery to try to determine the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. What they found contradicts some of the most recent statements from the Trump administration.
Here are a few highlights from the interviews Dr. Jeffrey Lewis has given to date:
“At the end of the day there are some really important things that haven’t been hit. If this ends here, it’s a really incomplete strike.” – NPR, June 22, 2025
“What we see are six craters, two clusters of three, where there were 12 massive ordnance penetrators dropped. The idea is you hit the same spot over and over again to kind of dig down. … They’re probably not trying to get all the way into the facility. They’re probably just trying to get close enough to it and crush it with a shockwave. If you send a big enough shockwave through that facility, it’s going to kill people, break stuff, damage the integrity of it.” – Wired, June 22, 2025
“If Israel is striking Iran alone, I don’t see how it makes any long-term impact unless there something really special and/or surprising in the mix. Starting to think the play here is to destabilize the regime more than cripple the nuclear program. It’s quite a bet by the Israelis.” – Bloomberg.com, June 13, 2025
Lewis is not the only expert at the Middlebury Institute and the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies who has been tapped for commentary. Below are more highlights from experts across the Middlebury Institute community:
Phillipp Bleek was quoted in Politifact, discussing the estimate of damage done from the June 21 bombing of Iranian nuclear sites.
Avner Cohen analyzed Israel’s military performance in the Israel-Iran War and advocated for negotiation to prevent a drawn-out conflict on NBC News. He was also cited extensively in major stories on Israel’s nuclear capabilities in the Financial Times and Newsweek.
In early 2024, Cohen noticed a significant change in Iranian discourse regarding nuclear capabilities and the bomb. So he teamed up with Jim Lamson and two summer undergraduate fellows, Zander Gilmartin (Middlebury College) and Sircey Smith (Trinity Washington), with the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies to look into it. They did a comprehensive study of Iranian nuclear discourse going back to 2015 and confirmed a marked shift after Oct. 7, 2023.
“We found general remarks that Iran has both the capability and the knowhow, alongside standard denials about Iran’s intention to possess such weapons. Meanwhile, Iran’s actions in the space between capability and knowhow on the one hand, and actual weapon production on the other hand, remained vague. The study strengthened my assessment that, even though Iran hasn’t made a formal decision to produce a weapon, it is likely working hard to shorten the timetable for producing such a weapon, or at least an explosive device. Iran is pursuing a state of advanced readiness in case it feels threatened and decides it wants a weapon.” – Haaretz, July 8, 2025
Read the full piece in Haaretz.
Sam Lair, a 2024 graduate of the Middlebury Institute’s MA in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies, spoke to USA Today about what satellite images tell us about Iran’s nuclear capabilities post-bombings. Lair now works as an open-source intelligence researcher for the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at Middlebury Institute.
Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program for CNS spoke to ABC Radio International on what the Iran-Israel war means for Russia.
Robert Rogowsky appeared on CNBC in mid-June to provide context for Middle East conflicts during the recent G7 Summit.
Allison Stanger is quoted by Reuters about the long-term ramifications of President Trump’s involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Stanger taught courses on AI at Middlebury Institute during spring 2025.
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Professor Jeff Knopf is coauthor of Coercing Syria on Chemical Weapons, which explores the impact of credibility and the balance of motivations and assurances in efforts to keep Syria from using chemical weapons.
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Anne Pellegrino leveraged the open-source intelligence skills she honed as a graduate research assistant at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies to land a job at a top satellite imagery firm.
| by Caitlin Fillmore
Jason Blazakis lends his expertise to Sigonella La sfida, which premiered 40 years after the hijacking of a cruise ship, with 97 passengers taken hostage.
