How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes
In an article for Politico, Institute scholars Avner Cohen and George Moore described three potential scenarios in which Russia may deploy nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
Avner Cohen
Professor
- Office
- McGowan Building MG203
- Tel
- (831) 647-6437
- avnerc@middlebury.edu
Trained as a philosopher and historian of ideas, Dr. Cohen turned early on in his career into nuclear history. He is widely known for his path-breaking historical studies of the Israeli nuclear program. He is a two-time winner of the MacArthur Foundation research and writing awards, in 1990 and 2004. He was also a Senior Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace in 1997-98 and 2007-08, and a Fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington DC in 2008-09. Currently he is a Global Fellow with the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center.
Dr. Cohen is the co-editor of Nuclear Weapons and the Future of Humanity (1986) and The Institution of Philosophy (1989), and the author of The Nuclear Age as Moral History (in Hebrew, 1989). His most acclaimed book, Israel and the Bomb, was published by Columbia University Press in 1998. His latest book, The Worst Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb, was published in 2010 by Columbia University Press. In addition, Dr. Cohen has authored many monographs, on-line archival historical collections, scholarly articles, books chapters, and short articles, and has been a prolific author of op-eds, feature articles and book reviews in the New York Times, Washington Post, Politico, Ha’aretz, and many other American and Israeli newspapers since the 1970s.
Courses Taught
MIIS 8506
Sem:Proliferation&Intellignce
Course Description
Sem: Proliferation & Intelligence
Throughout the nuclear age – from the Manhattan Project to our own challenge of assessing with Iran’s nuclear program – the history of nuclear proliferation intelligence has been largely an history of failures. No doubt, intelligence about nuclear proliferation is a tricky business. And yet policy makers do need intelligence to make decisions on proliferation matters.
The seminar is both a study of one generis problem, and also a story of a history of that problem. Understanding the complexity of the problem defines our historical survey, while history will be also an aid to appreciate better the problem. In a way, the seminar’s overall interest is to narrate and revisit the history of nuclear proliferation from the perspective of problem of intelligence.
The course examines the problem of nuclear intelligence by revisiting key cases in the history of nuclear proliferation: Germany in World War II, the Soviet Union in the mid-late 1940s, the early NIEs on proliferation, Israel in the late 50s and the 1960s, India in 1974, Pakistan in the 1980s, South Africa in the late 1970s and 1980s, Iraq (twice) in the 1980s, India (second time) in 1998, and Iran today. (Open to Juniors and Seniors only) The dates of this course are AUGUST 24 through DECEMBER 11. Registering for this course signals your interest in taking the course. You will be notified via email on August 21 whether you can officially enroll in the course.
Terms Taught
Fall 2020
MIIS 8526
Current
SEM:Security & WMD Mid East
Course Description
SEM: Security and WMD in Middle East*
The idea of security is experienced or defined very differently in different quarters of the Middle East. If you are, say, in Mosul or Baghdad, in Damascus or Aleppo, in Gaza or Hebron, in Jerusalem or Kfar Etzion or Tel Aviv, in Amman or Beirut, in Cairo or El Arish, in Doha or Riyadh. Each of those places stimulates a different sense of security, in the personal or collective sense, and yet their overall security discourse is interconnected. The overall discourse on security in the Middle East is influenced, affected, interrupted, and shaped by what is going on in the region. They represent different facets of the larger issue and discourse of security in the Middle East.
The seminar will address the issue and the discourse of security in the Middle East, with stress on the two sides of the spectrum, from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to acts of terrorism. We will look at the issue of security from both the national and the regional levels.
The seminar’s fundamental starting point is that to understand the issue of security in the region one must examine the broader historical fundamentals of the region. Religion, ethnicity, ideology, identity and, of course, politics are all closely related to the broader issue of security. Those issues are at the core of all regional conflicts as well as global terrorism; those issues shape the making of the modern Middle East. For this reason the seminar begins with a broad introduction on the making of the modern Middle East. Among the basic themes to be discussed in that introduction are:
the idea of the “Middle East” as a distinct geo-political region;
the fundamentals of the region: the religious, ethnic, and linguistic composition of the Middle East;
The split Sunni versus Shia
Islam as the major religion of the Middle East;
the collapse of the Ottoman Empire as the cradle of the modern Middle East;
the formation of the state system in the Middle East;
the rise of political Zionism,
the birth of the Arab-Israeli conflict;
the rise of modern Iran;
the creation of Modern Saudi Arabia and the Gulf;
Then, and against this introductory background, the seminar will examine the issue of contemporary security in the Middle East from both national and regional perspectives. We will look at the issue of security in the cases of the major states in the Middle East: Egypt, Iraq, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Israel. As it turns out, those countries –each in its unique way -- struggle now with issues of national identity and ideology that shapes their sense of security or lack therein.
The final part of the seminar will deal with regional issues involve regional security, WMD and ISIS. We will review not only the formation of the nuclear order in the Middle East where is Israel maintains a “benign monopoly” but also the history of the efforts to constrain and control the spread of WMD in the region, and why those efforts turned out not to be successful. The seminar will end by discussing the history as well as the desirability and feasibility of the efforts to establish the Middle East as WMD free zone. The dates of this course are SEPTEMBER 6 through DECEMBER 16.
Terms Taught
Fall 2022, MIIS courses in College Term, Fall 2023, MIIS courses in College Term
NPTG 8504
Upcoming
Global Politics
Course Description
Understanding the complex dynamics of global politics requires examination of a number of issues and characteristics of the international system. The key objective of this class is to provide students with the ability to approach different perspectives to any global political issue. These elements of the study of global politics include theoretical frameworks and historical trajectories, without which no global issue can be understood adequately. Other topics of discussion will include global governance, transnational global problems, and the international financial system.
The course reflects the evolving nature of international relations, a continuous process since recorded history, which included the rise of the Westphalian nation-state system. The continuous transformation now includes the rise of non-state actors as influential participants and protagonists (not necessarily always benign) in the global system; entities that include terrorist and insurgent groups, non-governmental organizations, multi-national corporations, for example.
Terms Taught
Spring 2022 - MIIS, Spring 2023 - MIIS, Spring 2024 - MIIS
NPTG 8527
Upcoming
NucWeapons & Terrorism in Film
Course Description
The course explores classical films, features and documentary, which address fundamental issues involving both nuclear weapons and terrorism.
Terms Taught
Spring 2023 - MIIS, Spring 2024 - MIIS
NPTG 8528
Current
TheNuclearAge:Historical Intro
Course Description
The Nuclear Age: Historical Introduction
This course provides an historical narrative—constructed in a highly interdisciplinary fashion—of the nuclear age from the discovery of fission in the late 1930s until the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. The course will trace the primary milestones—concepts, strategic doctrines, political and legal agreements, democratic and moral puzzles, and personalities—that were all involved in the making of the nuclear age. Our interest is twofold: the science and technology as well as the international and domestic politics of the bomb. As such the course provide basic familiarity with the history of the bomb—its invention, use, vertical and horizontal proliferation—and the history of the efforts to constrain, limit and even banning it. The course will be organized by looking at concrete historical milestones and their historical manifestation as well as by examining specific themes.
Terms Taught
Fall 2023 - MIIS, MIIS Workshop
NPTG 8558
Israel and the Bomb
Course Description
This course is a comprehensive introduction to the study of Israel’s nuclear history and policy within the broader context of understanding the nuclear dimension of Middle East politics. The course focuses on the uniqueness and the exceptionality that constitutes Israel’s nuclear history and policy. By that uniqueness we mean the original policy which Israel devised to acquire and possess nuclear weapons that ultimately made Israel an exceptional case both vis-à-vis the United States non-proliferation policies and vis-a-vis the non-proliferation regime. That policy is known as Israel’s policy of “nuclear opacity” or “nuclear ambiguity,” under which Israel has never officially acknowledged to acquire or possess nuclear weapons, even though since 1970s Israel is universally presumed as a nuclear weapons state. The course ends with reflections about challenge that Israel’s nuclear uniqueness poses both to the United States nonproliferation policy and the non-proliferation regime as a whole.
Terms Taught
Spring 2022 - MIIS, MIIS Workshop, Spring 2023 - MIIS, MIIS Workshop
NPTG 8625
Sem:Morality& Contemp Security
Course Description
This seminar aims to examine moral dilemmas that have confronted us throughout the nuclear age as well as in the current war with terrorism. The seminar will start by exploring the basic concepts of moral thinking and the principles of the “just war tradition.” Then we explore how and to what extent the tools and concepts of “just war tradition” apply to the fundamentals of contemporary world—the nuclear age on the one hand, and the war on terrorism on the other. As such, we will examine historical cases and practices involving both nuclear weapons and terrorism: from the “decision” to drop the first atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the practice of nuclear deterrence, through the morality of interrogation methods, intelligence gathering, and targeted assassination as tools against terrorism.
Terms Taught
Spring 2022 - MIIS
NPTG 8645
Current
Sem:Proliferation&Intellignce
Course Description
Throughout the nuclear age – from the Manhattan Project to our own challenge of assessing with Iran’s nuclear program – the history of nuclear proliferation intelligence has been largely an history of failures. No doubt, intelligence about nuclear proliferation is a tricky business. And yet policy makers do need intelligence to make decisions on proliferation matters.
The seminar is both a study of one generis problem, and also a story of a history of that problem. Understanding the complexity of the problem defines our historical survey, while history will be also an aid to appreciate better the problem. In a way, the seminar’s overall interest is to narrate and revisit the history of nuclear proliferation from the perspective of problem of intelligence.
The course examines the problem of nuclear intelligence by revisiting key cases in the history of nuclear proliferation: Germany in World War II, the Soviet Union in the mid-late 1940s, the early NIEs on proliferation, Israel in the late 50s and the 1960s, India in 1974, Pakistan in the 1980s, South Africa in the late 1970s and 1980s, Iraq (twice) in the 1980s, India (second time) in 1998, and Iran today.
Terms Taught
Fall 2022 - MIIS, Fall 2023 - MIIS
NPTG 8654
Current
Upcoming
SEM:Security & WMD in Mid East
Course Description
The idea of security is experienced or defined very differently in different quarters of the Middle East. If you are, say, in Mosul or Baghdad, in Damascus or Aleppo, in Gaza or Hebron, in Jerusalem or Kfar Etzion or Tel Aviv, in Amman or Beirut, in Cairo or El Arish, in Doha or Riyadh. Each of those places stimulates a different sense of security, in the personal or collective sense, and yet their overall security discourse is interconnected. The overall discourse on security in the Middle East is influenced, affected, interrupted, and shaped by what is going on in the region. They represent different facets of the larger issue and discourse of security in the Middle East.
The seminar will address the issue and the discourse of security in the Middle East, with stress on the two sides of the spectrum, from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to acts of terrorism. We will look at the issue of security from both the national and the regional levels.
The seminar’s fundamental starting point is that to understand the issue of security in the region one must examine the broader historical fundamentals of the region. Religion, ethnicity, ideology, identity and, of course, politics are all closely related to the broader issue of security. Those issues are at the core of all regional conflicts as well as global terrorism; those issues shape the making of the modern Middle East. For this reason the seminar begins with a broad introduction on the making of the modern Middle East. Among the basic themes to be discussed in that introduction are:
• the idea of the “Middle East” as a distinct geo-political region;
• the fundamentals of the region: the religious, ethnic, and linguistic composition of the Middle East;
• The split Sunni versus Shia
• Islam as the major religion of the Middle East;
• the collapse of the Ottoman Empire as the cradle of the modern Middle East;
• the formation of the state system in the Middle East;
• the rise of political Zionism,
• the birth of the Arab-Israeli conflict;
• the rise of modern Iran;
• the creation of Modern Saudi Arabia and the Gulf;
Then, and against this introductory background, the seminar will examine the issue of contemporary security in the Middle East from both national and regional perspectives. We will look at the issue of security in the cases of the major states in the Middle East: Egypt, Iraq, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Israel. As it turns out, those countries –each in its unique way -- struggle now with issues of national identity and ideology that shapes their sense of security or lack therein.
The final part of the seminar will deal with regional issues involve regional security, WMD and ISIS. We will review not only the formation of the nuclear order in the Middle East where is Israel maintains a “benign monopoly” but also the history of the efforts to constrain and control the spread of WMD in the region, and why those efforts turned out not to be successful. The seminar will end by discussing the history as well as the desirability and feasibility of the efforts to establish the Middle East as WMD free zone.
Terms Taught
Fall 2022 - MIIS, Fall 2023 - MIIS, Spring 2024 - MIIS
Areas of Interest
While originally inspired by the moral puzzles and paradoxes of living under the shadow of the bomb—the moral structure of nuclear deterrence known as Mutual Assured Destruction—much of Cohen’s work has focused on Israel’s nuclear history against the broader domestic and external aspects of the Arab-Israeli conflict. Dr. Cohen also maintains an on-going and broad interest in understanding the nuclear age as a whole: the relationships between the international and the national aspects of nuclear history; the interactions between technology and politics; the nexus of nuclear weapons, secrecy and democratic governance; civilian activism versus academic reflection; and the role of intelligence and espionage in the nuclear age.
Academic Degrees
- PhD, The Committee in History of Culture, The University of Chicago, 1981
- MA in Philosophy, York University (Canada), 1977
- BA in Philosophy and History, Tel Aviv University (Israel), 1975
Dr. Cohen has been teaching at the Institute since 2011.
Publications
Co-editor
- Nuclear Weapons and the Future of Humanity (1986)
- The Institution of Philosophy (1989)
Author
- The Nuclear Age as Moral History (In Hebrew, 1989)
- Israel and the Bomb, 1998 in English, 2000 in Hebrew
- The Worst Kept Secret: Israel’s Bargain with the Bomb, October 2010, Columbia University Press
- His book THE WORST-KEPT SECRET has a Facebook page
In addition, he published dozens of professional journals, book chapters, as well as op-eds.
News Feed
How Israel Built a Nuclear Program Right Under the Americans’ Noses
| by Eva Gudbergsdottir
Middlebury Institute Professor Avner Cohen and National Security Archive Senior Analyst Bill Burr recount how, despite setting up a system of visits in the 1960’s, the United States failed to prevent Israel from developing a nuclear weapon in a recent article in Haaretz.
In Israeli High Court Case, CNS Scholar Urges Change to Nuclear Oversight
| by Jason Warburg
Professor Avner Cohen’s report on nuclear regulation and oversight in liberal democracies was a factor in historic Israeli Supreme Court case.